show styles

23 March 2024
20240322 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240324

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13607
13608
13614
13615
13616
13617
13618
13619
13620

Dso/Dso
Bxo/Cro
Dso/Dso
Ekc/Ekc
Bxo/Hsx
Cao/Cao
Cao/Dao
Cao/Cao
Cro/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
21 30 20
8 6 10
21 30 20
90 93 85
4 6 10
17 22 20
17 22 25
17 22 20
... 13 15
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
1 7 5
1 1 1
1 7 5
47 82 35
0 1 1
2 3 5
3 3 5
2 3 5
... 2 0
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 1 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
9 20 10
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 0

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13607 S18W91
(914",-297")
β/β Dso/Dso 0150/0120 02/05 -
13608 N11W91
(943",180")
β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0020 02/03 -
13614 N17W09
(144",390")
β/β Dso/Dso 0210/0180 04/04 - / C8.4(13:45)
C6.2(13:30)
C6.0(13:18)
13615 S13W02
(32",-102")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 0370/0310 52/24 C9.0(19:32)
C9.9(18:51)
M2.8(16:22)
M3.8(15:17)
M3.8(15:01)
M1.5(14:49)
M5.4(13:51)
M1.9(13:31)
M1.1(13:04)
M1.3(12:36)
M1.0(11:22)
M3.1(07:26)
M2.5(07:01)
M1.1(06:47)
/ C7.4(22:40)
13616 N03W91
(960",47")
β/α Bxo/Hsx 0010/0020 01/01 -
13617 S14E29
(-454",-133")
β/β Cao/Cao 0100/0150 06/02 -
13618 S19W89
(909",-309")
β/β Cao/Dao 0100/0060 06/05 -
13619 N20E34
(-507",418")
β/β Cao/Cao 0100/0130 05/05 -
13620 S10E62
(-838",-112")
β/- Cro/--- 0030/---- 03/-- -
13609 N06W91
(956",97")
/ / / / -
13610 S16W69
(864",-223")
/ / / / -
13611 N28W58
(721",503")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C6.7(11:14) X1.1(00:58) C5.7(22:07) C8.5(22:59) C8.3(23:55)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 23-Mar-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 23-Mar-2024 20:30 UT .