show styles

20 March 2024
20240319 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240321

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13607
13608
13611
13613
13614
13615
13616

Dao/Dao
Cao/Bxo
Hrx/Hrx
Dai/Dai
Dao/Dai
Eac/Eao
Cao/Dai
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
27 36 25
26 22 10
4 6 10
49 66 45
35 36 45
82 81 80
22 22 45
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
4 7 5
2 3 1
0 1 1
10 16 10
4 7 10
13 30 20
0 3 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 14 5
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13607 S17W60
(799",-223")
β/β Dao/Dao 0080/0050 11/07 -
13608 N10W50
(728",241")
β/β Cao/Bxo 0020/0010 05/07 -
13611 N28W15
(220",550")
α/α Hrx/Hrx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13613 S22W69
(834",-319")
β/β Dai/Dai 0080/0110 09/08 -
13614 N16E31
(-478",361")
β/β Dao/Dai 0200/0170 06/09 -
13615 S12E36
(-555",-106")
βγ/βγ Eac/Eao 0240/0180 28/13 -
13616 N02W57
(808",97")
β/β Cao/Dai 0050/0050 09/12 -
13606 N09W80
(937",169")
/ / / / -
13609 N06W50
(735",175")
/ / / / -
13610 S16W26
(407",-162")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C6.1(00:52) C4.5(01:26) C4.0(02:20) C2.0(06:31) C2.2(09:20) C6.3(09:49) C3.3(13:23) C3.3(14:43) M7.4(07:23) M7.4(07:23) C2.3(10:18) C3.7(11:30) C3.1(11:48) C5.9(12:44) C2.7(15:53) C2.9(16:22) C7.1(17:19) C5.8(19:48) C3.0(21:09) C6.0(21:27) M2.1(23:17)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 20-Mar-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 20-Mar-2024 20:30 UT .