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3 February 2024
20240202 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240204

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13565
13567
13570
13571
13572
13573
13574
13575

Dri/Cro
Dai/Dai
Dro/Dro
Hsx/Hsx
Axx/Axx
Cso/Cao
Dso/Dao
Bxi/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 97 15
49 66 50
7 17 15
3 5 40
2 3 5
12 17 15
21 30 20
... 0 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 12 1
10 16 10
0 6 1
0 3 15
0 1 1
1 3 1
3 7 1
... 6 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 2 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13565 N07W13
(218",220")
βγ/β Dri/Cro 0020/0020 08/08 C3.1(00:54)
/ C2.6(16:46)
13567 N19E10
(-160",414")
β/βγ Dai/Dai 0180/0240 21/13 -
13570 S04E23
(-380",28")
β/β Dro/Dro 0020/0020 05/01 -
13571 S17E37
(-562",-203")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0110/0090 02/02 -
13572 S12W04
(66",-99")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 02/02 -
13573 N23W18
(277",471")
β/β Cso/Cao 0040/0030 03/04 -
13574 N15E46
(-678",321")
β/β Dso/Dao 0090/0090 02/02 -
13575 S37W36
(458",-516")
β/- Bxi/--- 0020/---- 08/-- -
13563 S05W80
(955",-66")
/ / / / -
13564 S14W29
(459",-145")
/ / / / -
13568 S10W90
(958",-167")
/ / / / -
13569 S12W50
(731",-135")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.9(00:27) C4.8(01:33) C4.7(01:38) C7.7(05:31) C5.8(10:33) C3.8(11:22) C4.3(12:44) C3.2(13:03) C2.2(14:06) C3.1(15:19) C4.4(17:46) C4.1(19:41) C2.4(20:11) C6.5(11:16) C2.5(13:02) C3.1(15:25) C3.1(16:22) C1.6(19:16)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 3-Feb-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 3-Feb-2024 20:30 UT .