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10 July 2023
20230709 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230711

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13359
13360
13361
13362
13363
13364
13366
13367
13368
13369

Axx/Axx
Bxo/Cro
Dri/Hrx
Ehi/Ekc
Hsx/Hsx
Hkx/Cko
Axx/Axx
Axx/Bxo
Dsi/Dai
Dai/Bxo
Dri/---
Dro/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
8 6 5
... 97 10
39 80 60
3 5 5
21 20 25
2 3 5
16 58 35
57 66 55
... 97 45
... 17 15
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
1 1 1
... 12 1
39 43 15
0 3 1
0 10 1
0 1 1
6 12 10
21 16 15
... 12 5
... 6 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
... 2 1
0 6 5
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 5
... 2 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13358 S13W64
(827",-239")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/31 -
13359 S22W68
(812",-375")
β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0030 06/08 -
13360 N23W60
(753",339")
β/α Dri/Hrx 0030/0020 06/01 -
13361 N24W40
(555",339")
βγδ/βδ Ehi/Ekc 0250/0260 13/21 -
13362 S09W08
(130",-210")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0050 02/02 M1.5(22:06)
C5.3(19:17)
C2.9(15:08)
C2.8(14:48)
C2.8(14:47)
C2.5(12:20) / -
13363 S21E16
(-243",-396")
α/β Hkx/Cko 0320/0320 02/02 -
13364 N24E01
(-15",325")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13365 S36W61
(668",-579")
α/β Axx/Bxo 0010/0010 02/02 -
13366 S10W52
(734",-202")
β/β Dsi/Dai 0120/0100 10/11 -
13367 N10W13
(209",102")
β/β Dai/Bxo 0080/0010 10/07 -
13368 S19W47
(654",-348")
β/- Dri/--- 0030/---- 05/-- -
13369 S18W37
(541",-340")
β/- Dro/--- 0030/---- 05/-- -
13357 S07W91
(935",-113")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.4(00:25) C4.4(00:35) C9.4(01:49) C4.1(04:58) C4.5(05:24) C4.1(06:11) C3.1(09:07) C2.9(09:46) C3.0(10:14) C2.5(11:40) C2.8(13:07) C2.8(17:12) C4.1(18:15) M2.4(03:29)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 10-Jul-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 10-Jul-2023 23:30 UT .