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5 May 2023
20230504 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230506

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13293
13294
13296
13297
13299

Bxo/Cro
Dac/Dhc
Hsx/Hsx
Bxo/Bxo
Dki/Dai
Eki/Dki
Bxo/---
Dao/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
... 47 45
3 5 5
80 73 70
89 81 65
... 36 25
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
... 24 10
0 3 1
15 30 35
36 42 25
... 7 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
... 2 1
0 0 1
3 4 10
8 7 5
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13289 N20W55
(733",358")
β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0030 04/07 -
13293 N13E07
(-113",274")
βδ/βδ Dac/Dhc 0240/0290 14/12 -
13294 S08E30
(-472",-79")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0120/0120 01/01 -
13295 N16W61
(801",290")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 03/03 -
13296 N16E20
(-313",318")
β/β Dki/Dai 0300/0170 11/12 -
13297 N08E36
(-555",182")
β/β Eki/Dki 0500/0400 18/20 -
13298 S16E18
(-283",-206")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 02/-- -
13299 S06E55
(-776",-64")
β/- Dao/--- 0030/---- 06/-- -
13287 S25W91
(861",-401")
/ / / / -
13292 N14W54
(748",265")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.5(00:53) C1.7(01:21) C1.5(02:53) C5.0(05:14) C2.7(05:49) C9.5(06:52) C8.2(15:39) C9.8(22:11) M2.1(07:30) M1.2(15:18) C2.4(03:54) C5.3(04:58) C2.8(14:28) C2.5(15:55) C3.3(18:04) C6.3(18:18) C6.3(18:20) C2.5(21:21) C2.0(22:55) M3.9(08:05)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 5-May-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 5-May-2023 23:30 UT .