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20 February 2023
20230219 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230221

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13217
13220
13225
13226
13229
13230
13231

Hsx/Hsx
Hsx/Hsx
Dao/Dao
Dki/Dko
Eki/Dki
Hax/Cao
Cro/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 10
3 5 10
27 36 25
65 73 60
89 81 75
5 8 15
... 13 15
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
0 3 1
4 7 5
13 30 15
36 42 40
2 3 1
... 2 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
9 4 1
8 7 15
0 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13217 S12W84
(943",-188")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0130/0140 01/01 -
13220 S14W67
(867",-188")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0120/0120 01/01 -
13225 S21W91
(905",-346")
β/β Dao/Dao 0090/0080 04/04 -
13226 N10W59
(820",227")
β/β Dki/Dko 0320/0330 14/14 -
13229 N26E20
(-299",524")
βδ/βδ Eki/Dki 0300/0280 16/14 -
13230 S23E45
(-633",-299")
α/β Hax/Cao 0090/0090 03/04 -
13231 N21W50
(695",417")
β/- Cro/--- 0030/---- 03/-- -
13219 S06W91
(964",-102")
/ / / / -
13221 N19W73
(877",346")
/ / / / -
13223 N17W91
(927",279")
/ / / / C2.1(04:12) / -
13224 N22W74
(865",391")
/ / / / -
13227 S03W57
(814",14")
/ / / / -
13228 S24W82
(878",-376")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.8(01:19) C2.8(02:08) C3.4(04:39) C5.5(05:58) C4.5(06:41) C7.1(06:50) C2.6(10:25) C3.1(16:22) C5.5(17:37) C2.8(19:05) M4.4(14:47) C2.1(15:42) C2.5(17:09) C5.7(18:53) C4.0(19:26) C4.7(20:54) C3.4(22:17) C3.4(22:36) C3.8(23:57)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 20-Feb-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 20-Feb-2023 20:30 UT .