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11 December 2022
20221210 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20221212

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13153
13156
13157
13160
13161
13162
13163
13158

Fho/Fho
Cso/Cso
Esi/Esi
Hsx/Hax
Bxo/Dro
Hsx/Hsx
Dso/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
53 43 45
14 17 15
68 84 50
7 5 5
6 6 5
3 5 5
... 30 75
... ... 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 5 5
1 3 1
10 21 5
1 3 1
0 1 1
0 3 1
... 7 20
... ... 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 1 1
... ... 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13153 S17W57
(783",-281")
β/βγ Fho/Fho 0700/0730 05/09 -
13156 N25W51
(687",417")
β/β Cso/Cso 0070/0080 06/02 -
13157 N16W35
(538",275")
β/β Esi/Esi 0230/0220 19/20 -
13160 N22E10
(-157",373")
α/α Hsx/Hax 0080/0080 01/01 -
13161 N26W42
(587",433")
β/β Bxo/Dro 0010/0020 04/06 -
13162 S13E31
(-490",-213")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0060 01/01 -
13163 S20E52
(-723",-329")
β/- Dso/--- 0130/---- 05/-- -
13158 N23W90
(896",380")
/β /Bxo /0010 /07 -
13159 N29W01
(14",481")
/ / / / C1.1(10:27) / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.1(02:22) C1.7(06:12) C1.6(06:34) C2.9(11:25) C1.2(14:33) C1.2(14:59) C1.2(15:42) C1.5(16:45) C1.7(18:36) C1.7(18:04) C1.4(19:56) C1.9(20:20) C4.8(20:35) C2.3(21:49)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 11-Dec-2022 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 11-Dec-2022 20:30 UT .