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22 July 2021
20210721 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20210723

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

12842
12845
12846
12847
12848
12849

Dsi/Dai
Dso/Axx
Cso/Cso
Cro/Cro
Bxo/---
Axx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
16 58 25
38 30 20
14 17 15
7 13 10
... 6 10
... 3 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
6 12 5
6 7 1
1 3 1
1 2 1
... 1 1
... 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
6 1 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
12842 N25W80
(843",384")
βγ/β Dsi/Dai 0080/0140 07/10 -
12845 S15W75
(881",-264")
β/α Dso/Axx 0060/0000 04/01 - / C1.3(19:47)
12846 N25E35
(-492",336")
β/β Cso/Cso 0090/0090 07/05 -
12847 S28E48
(-620",-491")
β/β Cro/Cro 0020/0020 03/03 -
12848 N20E02
(-31",244")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 04/-- -
12849 S18E61
(-786",-329")
α/- Axx/--- 0000/---- 01/-- -
12844 S43W17
(202",-701")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.2(15:55)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 22-Jul-2021 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 22-Jul-2021 23:30 UT .