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7 September 2017
20170906 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20170908


Region Flare Probabilities (%)
NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

12673
12674
12677
12678

Ekc/Dkc
Fki/Fhi
Axx/Axx
Cso/Bxo
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
98 93 95
70 89 75
3 3 5
15 17 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
80 82 55
33 61 25
0 1 1
1 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
15 20 25
0 11 1
0 0 1
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
12673 S09W57
(790",-212")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Dkc 0960/0880 24/33 X1.3(14:20)
C3.0(12:00)
M7.3(10:11)
M1.4(09:49)
C2.3(09:16)
C8.2(06:19)
M2.4(04:59)
M1.2(23:33)
M1.4(19:21)
M2.5(15:51)
/ X9.3(11:53)
X2.2(08:57)
C2.7(07:29)
12674 N14W40
(595",139")
β/β Fki/Fhi 0680/0680 10/23 -
12677 N18E14
(-219",181")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0020 01/01 -
12678 N11E19
(-305",68")
β/β Cso/Bxo 0040/0010 04/02 - / C1.6(06:17)
12676 S09W91
(939",-145")
/β /Bxo /0030 /02 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 7-Sep-2017 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 7-Sep-2017 19:30 UT .