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1 July 2025
20250630 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20250702

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

14118
14120
14122
14123
14124
14125
14126
14127
14128
14129
14130

Bxo/Bxo
Cso/Cso
Dso/Dso
Dro/Cro
Bxo/Hsx
Hsx/Hsx
Axx/Cso
Cro/Cro
Dao/Dao
Cri/---
Axx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
8 6 10
14 17 15
21 30 25
9 17 15
4 6 10
3 5 10
2 3 5
7 13 20
27 36 30
... 28 35
... 3 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
1 1 1
1 3 1
1 7 5
0 6 1
0 1 1
0 3 1
0 1 1
1 2 5
4 7 5
... 4 5
... 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
14118 S13W91
(918",-211")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 05/05 -
14120 N06W91
(937",99")
β/β Cso/Cso 0050/0050 02/02 -
14122 N12W15
(239",151")
β/β Dso/Dso 0080/0100 11/10 - / C1.0(03:48)
14123 S28W27
(379",-481")
β/β Dro/Cro 0030/0020 05/05 C1.1(05:24) / -
14124 S14E06
(-96",-275")
β/α Bxo/Hsx 0010/0020 02/01 -
14125 N21E28
(-415",299")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0040 01/01 -
14126 N08W60
(810",107")
α/β Axx/Cso 0005/0010 01/03 -
14127 S18E16
(-248",-336")
β/β Cro/Cro 0030/0030 07/07 -
14128 S04E22
(-353",-110")
β/β Dao/Dao 0040/0030 05/05 -
14129 N02E34
(-529",-6")
βγ/- Cri/--- 0030/---- 08/-- -
14130 S12E64
(-830",-216")
α/- Axx/--- 0005/---- 01/-- -
14121 S11W77
(903",-190")
/α /Hsx /0010 /01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.2(06:24) C1.4(13:20) C1.0(15:13) C1.1(17:59) C1.9(18:25) C1.1(23:57)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 1-Jul-2025 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 1-Jul-2025 07:30 UT .