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30 June 2023
20230629 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230701

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13339
13340
13341
13345
13354
13355

Hax/Hax
Eai/Eai
Hax/Hax
Axx/Hrx
Ekc/Ekc
Hax/Hsx
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
7 8 0
62 71 0
7 8 5
1 3 10
90 93 80
7 8 15
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 0
19 29 0
0 3 1
0 1 1
47 82 30
1 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
0 1 0
0 0 1
0 0 1
9 20 5
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13339 S19W91
(891",-305")
α/α Hax/Hax 0030/0040 01/01 -
13340 N23W91
(868",368")
βγ/βγ Eai/Eai 0080/0220 07/14 -
13341 S15W75
(881",-255")
α/α Hax/Hax 0020/0030 02/01 -
13345 N09W78
(912",138")
α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0020 01/01 -
13354 N15W30
(457",206")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 0890/0800 40/38 -
13355 S16E14
(-220",-304")
α/α Hax/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
13346 N08W91
(933",131")
/ / / / -
13348 S33W46
(570",-541")
/β /Bxo /0010 /03 -
13349 N08W59
(802",107")
/ / / / -
13350 S11W59
(795",-203")
/ / / / -
13351 N21W36
(519",303")
/β /Bxo /0010 /02 -
13353 S18W91
(896",-290")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.7(00:11) C1.6(01:15) C1.5(01:44) C1.6(04:13) C1.8(06:09) C3.2(07:07) C5.8(09:51) C1.9(11:16) C2.9(12:39) C1.9(13:04) C4.2(13:44) C2.2(15:24) C3.7(18:53) C2.8(19:03) C2.5(16:19) C3.4(17:56) C2.9(18:34) C2.7(18:43) C3.0(20:02) C5.3(21:52)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 30-Jun-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 30-Jun-2023 23:30 UT .