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12 June 2023
20230611 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230613

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13321
13326
13327
13329
13331
13332
13323
13330

Hsx/Hsx
Hsx/Hsx
Eai/Eai
Cao/Cao
Eao/Eao
Axx/Axx
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 0
3 5 5
62 71 55
17 22 5
36 44 65
2 3 5
... ... 5
... ... 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 0
0 3 0
19 29 5
2 3 0
7 13 10
0 1 0
... ... 0
... ... 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 1 1
0 0 0
0 1 1
0 0 0
... ... 0
... ... 0

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13321 S15W91
(911",-244")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0090/0150 01/01 -
13326 N25W56
(711",394")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0120/0080 03/01 -
13327 S16W41
(597",-269")
βγ/βγ Eai/Eai 0130/0110 37/30 -
13329 N23W38
(536",361")
β/β Cao/Cao 0110/0120 07/05 -
13331 S22W01
(15",-366")
β/β Eao/Eao 0170/0170 07/02 C3.3(20:19)
C2.0(17:33)
C1.7(17:00)
C1.4(09:21) / -
13332 S08E03
(-49",-143")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0000 01/01 -
13300 N18W57
(755",286")
/- /--- /---- /-- -
13323 S10W91
(929",-163")
/β /Bxo /0010 /06 -
13328 N11W91
(926",180")
/ / / / -
13330 N18W59
(771",286")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.5(00:29) C1.9(00:51) C1.4(02:50) C1.8(03:06) C1.4(05:03) C1.3(05:35) C5.2(06:49) C2.6(08:47) C3.7(09:53) C2.9(10:19) C2.7(13:09) C1.9(14:02) C2.2(14:55) C1.7(17:22) C1.3(18:19) C2.2(21:36)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 12-Jun-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 12-Jun-2023 23:30 UT .