show styles

22 December 2021
20211221 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20211223

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

12907
12908
12909
12910
12911
12912
12913
12914
12915
12916

Dai/Dai
Dsi/Cai
Hax/Cso
Cro/Axx
Hrx/Hrx
Hsx/Hsx
Axx/Axx
Bxo/---
Dso/---
Hsx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
49 66 45
0 58 25
13 8 10
10 13 15
4 6 5
3 5 5
2 3 5
... 6 5
... 30 5
... 5 0
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
10 16 5
0 12 5
0 3 1
1 2 1
0 1 1
0 3 1
0 1 1
... 1 1
... 7 1
... 3 0
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 1 1
... 0 0

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
12907 S21W50
(699",-330")
βγ/βγ Dai/Dai 0200/0150 14/13 C2.4(19:31)
C8.8(17:56)
C3.4(10:14)
C4.0(05:15)
C1.5(04:36)
/ C4.9(22:29)
12908 S20W37
(553",-310")
β/β Dsi/Cai 0100/0100 18/10 C2.9(10:04) / -
12909 S21W24
(371",-323")
α/β Hax/Cso 0080/0100 03/05 - / C1.0(13:45)
C4.9(07:06)
C3.3(04:48)
12910 N15W91
(941",251")
β/α Cro/Axx 0020/0010 03/02 -
12911 N20W10
(159",364")
α/α Hrx/Hrx 0020/0020 01/02 -
12912 S12E27
(-434",-175")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
12913 S28E07
(-105",-431")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
12914 S17E11
(-178",-255")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 02/-- -
12915 N16E24
(-382",298")
β/- Dso/--- 0030/---- 03/-- -
12916 S18E70
(-872",-291")
α/- Hsx/--- 0100/---- 01/-- -
12905 S12W91
(953",-203")
/ / / / -
12906 S29W83
(846",-469")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.7(00:12) C2.0(11:03) M1.3(06:54) C4.0(05:58) C2.0(15:44) C4.9(17:35) C4.9(19:02) C3.9(20:36) M1.1(07:43) M1.4(11:31)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 22-Dec-2021 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 22-Dec-2021 20:30 UT .