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3 November 2014
20141102 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20141104

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

12195
12200
12201
12202
12203
12204

Hrx/Hax
Axx/Hrx
Cai/Cai
Cao/Cao
Dao/Cao
Cro/Cro
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
N/A 6 10
N/A 3 10
N/A 40 35
N/A 22 25
N/A 36 45
N/A 13 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
N/A 1 1
N/A 1 1
N/A 12 5
N/A 3 5
N/A 7 10
N/A 2 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
N/A 0 1
N/A 0 1
N/A 0 1
N/A 0 1
N/A 0 1
N/A 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
12195 N07W88
(959",115")
α/α Hrx/Hax 0020/0030 01/01 -
12200 S16W06
(97",-333")
α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0010 02/01 -
12201 S05E11
(-184",-152")
β/β Cai/Cai 0050/0050 07/05 C1.3(18:14)
C1.4(04:50)
C4.2(03:47)
/ C1.9(23:38)
C3.5(16:58)
12202 N12W35
(544",145")
β/β Cao/Cao 0050/0040 07/06 -
12203 N12W17
(277",136")
β/β Dao/Cao 0150/0030 09/04 -
12204 N05E27
(-439",22")
β/β Cro/Cro 0030/0020 05/05 -
12196 S05W64
(867",-114")
/ / / / -
12197 S12W64
(851",-230")
/ / / / -
12198 S13W91
(941",-215")
/ / / / -
12199 S17W31
(477",-340")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.7(19:10) M2.2(11:23) C9.4(20:44)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 3-Nov-2014 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 3-Nov-2014 20:35 UT .