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 3 September 2012
⇐20120902 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120904⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11553
11560
11561
11562
11563
11564
11555
11557
11558
11559
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11553 Dai 38(45) 11(10) 2(1)
11560 Ehi 50(55) 22(10) 0(1)
11561 Cao 16(15) 2(1) 0(1)
11562 Cso 12(10) 2(1) 0(1)
11563 Dao 23(25) 6(5) 0(1)
11564 Dao 23(25) 6(5) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11553 S22W81
(871",-370") 		β/β Dai/Dai 0140/0150 05/08 C1.2(00:38)
C1.3(20:22)
/C3.1(10:15)
C1.1(13:37)
11560 N03W30
(476",-54") 		βγ/βγ Ehi/Dai 0260/0220 21/19 C1.3(16:30)
/C2.9(01:50)
C5.5(18:00)
11561 S12W35
(535",-293") 		β/β Cao/Dao 0020/0030 02/02 -
11562 S17W02
(31",-391") 		β/β Cso/Dao 0020/0020 03/04 -
11563 S26E17
(-250",-518") 		β/β Dao/Dso 0050/0070 04/04 -
11564 S15E29
(-446",-346") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0150/0090 13/09 C1.8(01:46)
C4.0(02:40)
C1.9(09:35)
C2.6(10:29)
C2.7(13:06)
/C2.8(02:48)
C2.1(22:19)
11555 N08W52
(744",58") 		/ / / / -
11557 N17W58
(773",215") 		/ / / / -
11558 N13W16
(256",100") 		/ / / / -
11559 N17W16
(251",166") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 3-Sep-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 3-Sep-2012 21:00 UT .