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 27 August 2012
⇐20120826 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120828⇒

NOAA
7 Active Regions
11546
11552
11553
11554
11555
11548
11551
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11546 Axx 2(5) 0(1) 0(1)
11552 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11553 Cso 12(10) 2(1) 0(1)
11554 Dao 23(25) 6(5) 0(1)
11555 Dko 33(35) 15(10) 2(5)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11546 N17W71
(859",239") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
11552 S17W19
(296",-383") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0030 03/01 -
11553 S21E06
(-93",-448") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0110/0150 06/03 -
11554 N16W27
(415",159") 		β/β Dao/Dsi 0140/0170 11/09 -
11555 N08E44
(-655",47") 		β/β Dko/Dao 0310/0160 07/06 -
11548 N18W49
(683",218") 		/ / / / -
11551 N13W91
(924",213") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C1.0(17:12)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 27-Aug-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 27-Aug-2012 21:00 UT .