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 5 August 2012
⇐20120804 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120806⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
11529
11530
11532
11535
11536
11537
11538
11539
11540
11541
11534
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11529 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11530 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11532 Cso 12(5) 2(1) 0(1)
11535 Cso 12(20) 2(1) 0(1)
11537 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11538 Eso 19(25) 6(5) 0(1)
11539 Cro 9(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11540 Cao 16(25) 2(5) 0(1)
11541 Axx 2(5) 0(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11529 S10W91
(930",-161") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0040 01/01 -
11530 S18W91
(898",-288") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0100/0100 01/02 /C1.2(06:42)
11532 S19W66
(817",-345") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0240/0230 04/06 C1.8(02:20)
11535 N18W16
(248",198") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0100/0100 10/07 /C1.3(01:25)
C2.7(04:13)
C1.3(06:03)
11536 S25W51
(667",-456") 		β/βγ Cso/Cro 0030/0030 03/05 -
11537 N12E09
(-145",98") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0040 01/01 -
11538 S22E03
(-46",-447") 		βγ/β Eso/Dao 0220/0220 08/06 -
11539 S22E18
(-271",-443") 		β/β Cro/Bxo 0020/0010 03/03 -
11540 S27E33
(-460",-503") 		β/β Cao/Cro 0090/0030 08/03 -
11541 S15E36
(-538",-323") 		α/α Axx/Hrx 0000/0010 01/01 /C3.5(11:04)
11534 N23W53
(696",312") 		/α /Axx /0000 /01 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.1(05:46)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 5-Aug-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 5-Aug-2012 23:00 UT .