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 28 July 2012
⇐20120727 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120729⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11526
11528
11529
11530
11531
11532
11533
11524
11525
11527
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11526 Cro 9(10) 1(1) 0(1)
11528 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11529 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11530 Cso 12(15) 2(1) 0(1)
11531 Bxo 5(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11532 Cso 12(15) 2(1) 0(1)
11533 Cao 16(20) 2(5) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11526 S17W32
(480",-349") 		β/β Cro/Cro 0020/0020 03/03 -
11528 N17E07
(-110",189") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0030/0040 02/03 /C5.0(03:58)
C2.5(11:44)
C1.0(12:19)
11529 S11E12
(-193",-267") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0080 02/02 -
11530 S19E24
(-364",-386") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0130/0140 03/03 /C1.5(13:57)
11531 N15W77
(889",223") 		β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0020 03/03 /C1.3(00:17)
C1.7(02:24)
11532 S20E49
(-671",-378") 		β/β Cso/Cao 0060/0060 03/03 /C1.3(03:28)
M2.7(17:17)
11533 S28E14
(-202",-521") 		β/- Cao/--- 0040/---- 05/-- -
11524 S17W89
(902",-276") 		/ / / / -
11525 S21W90
(881",-336") 		/ / / / -
11527 N27E07
(-102",347") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 28-Jul-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 28-Jul-2012 07:00 UT .