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 14 July 2012
⇐20120713 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120715⇒

NOAA
6 Active Regions
11519
11520
11521
11522
11523
11518
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11519 Hsx 4(10) 1(5) 0(1)
11520 Fkc 53(95) 50(70) 19(15)
11521 Eki 48(90) 24(60) 5(10)
11522 Dao 23(20) 6(5) 0(1)
11523 Dao 23(20) 6(5) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11519 S16W59
(779",-295") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0050 01/01 -
11520 S16W37
(547",-315") 		βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc 0920/1460 33/53 C5.0(03:33)
C3.2(10:29)
C2.4(14:08)
M1.0(04:51)
/C1.5(11:07)
C1.3(19:00)
C2.4(22:01)
C2.1(22:28)
11521 S21W47
(645",-383") 		β/βγ Eki/Esi 0260/0210 16/18 /C2.4(06:23)
C1.5(12:15)
11522 N13W50
(706",167") 		β/β Dao/Cro 0020/0020 05/04 C1.4(09:07)
11523 S27E04
(-58",-492") 		β/β Dao/Bxo 0020/0010 07/06 -
11518 N09W67
(859",119") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.0(07:31) C2.5(15:38)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 14-Jul-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 14-Jul-2012 23:00 UT .