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 6 July 2012
⇐20120705 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120707⇒

NOAA
7 Active Regions
11513
11515
11517
11518
11519
11514
11516
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11513 Cso 12(50) 2(10) 0(0)
11515 Ekc 54(99) 41(75) 13(25)
11517 Bxo 5(5) 1(0) 0(0)
11518 Bxo 5(10) 1(0) 0(0)
11519 Hsx 4(40) 1(10) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11513 N15W66
(833",221") 		β/βγ Cso/Cso 0240/0160 05/13 C7.8(14:50)
11515 S17W50
(692",-311") 		βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Fkc 0670/0640 56/45 C6.8(00:13)
C5.8(04:28)
C7.4(07:02)
C3.8(09:13)
M2.9(01:37)
M1.8(10:24)
/C7.0(02:01)
C9.1(04:42)
C5.0(09:05)
C5.8(09:17)
C4.0(14:15)
C8.3(14:41)
C6.2(15:56)
C5.1(17:51)
C6.1(18:12)
C4.8(19:39)
C5.0(23:34)
M2.4(01:05)
M2.2(02:35)
M4.7(03:25)
M1.1(06:49)
M1.3(07:40)
M1.8(10:44)
M6.1(11:39)
M1.6(20:09)
11517 N18W41
(590",249") 		β/β Bxo/Dso 0010/0070 05/07 -
11518 N09E38
(-575",102") 		β/α Bxo/Axx 0010/0010 05/02 -
11519 S15E49
(-689",-281") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0120/0030 01/01 -
11514 S14W68
(849",-249") 		/ / / / C5.0(02:28)
M1.0(02:44)
/M1.2(13:05)
M1.6(21:37)
11516 N14W53
(732",194") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C7.7(04:52) M1.5(08:17) M1.2(13:26) /C7.4(13:41)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 6-Jul-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 6-Jul-2012 23:00 UT .