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 7 June 2012
⇐20120606 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120608⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
11493
11494
11496
11497
11498
11499
11502
11503
11492
11495
11500
11501
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11493 Esi 49(50) 5(15) 0(1)
11494 Cso 12(20) 2(5) 0(1)
11496 Hax 7(5) 2(5) 0(1)
11497 Dao 23(45) 6(10) 0(1)
11498 Cao 16(15) 2(5) 0(1)
11499 Bxi 0(45) 0(10) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11493 N14W32
(487",226") 		βγ/βγ Esi/Esi 0130/0170 11/12 C1.1(19:27)
C1.8(19:36)
11494 S18W20
(308",-296") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0160/0160 08/09 C1.5(05:51)
/C1.0(17:03)
C1.1(23:00)
C1.0(23:56)
M2.1(19:54)
11496 N16W24
(370",258") 		α/β Hax/Cso 0020/0030 01/02 -
11497 S22W44
(610",-357") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0230/0170 07/08 -
11498 N06W13
(212",95") 		β/β Cao/Dao 0020/0070 07/08 C1.6(00:06)
C1.0(01:49)
11499 N15W09
(143",242") 		βγ/β Bxi/Ero 0020/0030 14/10 C1.2(02:23)
C2.0(12:06)
C1.1(13:02)
C2.7(14:19)
C9.1(15:29)
/C1.2(16:14)
C1.2(21:28)
C1.1(22:29)
11502 S17W02
(31",-280") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0000/0000 01/01 -
11503 N09W69
(872",146") 		α/β Axx/Bxo 0000/0010 02/02 -
11492 S18W91
(898",-291") 		/α /Axx /0010 /01 C1.0(03:11)
/C1.0(17:55)
11495 S15W74
(878",-245") 		/ / / / C1.2(00:37)
/C1.8(02:12)
11500 N09W77
(910",147") 		/α /Hsx /0020 /01 -
11501 N07W29
(456",112") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 7-Jun-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 7-Jun-2012 23:00 UT .