show styles

 18 May 2012
⇐20120517 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120519⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
11476
11477
11478
11479
11481
11482
11484
11485
11483
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11476 Cao 16(0) 2(0) 0(0)
11477 Hrx 5(10) 0(1) 0(1)
11478 Hsx 4(10) 1(1) 0(1)
11479 Hsx 4(25) 1(5) 0(1)
11482 Dai 38(50) 11(10) 2(1)
11484 Dai 38(60) 11(10) 2(1)
11485 Bxo 5(5) 1(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11476 N12W91
(926",196") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0150/0230 02/03 -
11477 S20W58
(757",-306") 		α/α Hrx/Axx 0020/0010 01/01 -
11478 S22W49
(665",-333") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0060 01/01 -
11479 N14W26
(404",261") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0050/0050 01/03 -
11481 S10W08
(130",-129") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
11482 N14W17
(270",263") 		β/β Dai/Cao 0190/0130 10/09 -
11484 N09E10
(-163",184") 		β/β Dai/Dao 0230/0120 15/09 -
11485 S19E24
(-365",-278") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 03/04 -
11483 S26W14
(206",-385") 		/α /Axx /0010 /01 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 18-May-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 18-May-2012 23:00 UT .