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 18 January 2012
⇐20120117 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120119⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
11396
11398
11399
11401
11402
11403
11404
11405
11406
11395
11397
11400
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11396 Dro 17(5) 5(0) 0(0)
11399 Hrx 5(5) 0(0) 0(0)
11401 Ekc 54(99) 41(50) 13(5)
11402 Eko 38(60) 14(15) 2(1)
11403 Bxo 5(15) 1(0) 0(0)
11405 Hsx 4(5) 1(0) 0(0)
11406 Dro 17(15) 5(0) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11396 N24W46
(642",448") 		β/β Dro/Dso 0030/0040 17/10 -
11398 N11W77
(933",203") 		β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0050 03/05 -
11399 S23E16
(-248",-307") 		α/α Hrx/Hsx 0020/0020 01/01 -
11401 N18E25
(-393",372") 		βγ/β Ekc/Eso 0480/0420 18/13 C1.0(09:51)
C2.4(10:16)
M1.7(19:04)
/C2.2(18:32)
C1.0(23:53)
M1.0(04:41)
11402 N28E27
(-392",522") 		βγ/β Eko/Cko 0630/0480 07/06 -
11403 S19W11
(176",-240") 		β/ Bxo/ 0010/ 05/ -
11404 N11W55
(785",232") 		β/β Bxo/Dso 0010/0030 03/03 -
11405 N13E38
(-586",282") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0020 01/01 /C1.4(17:19)
11406 S23W68
(833",-351") 		β/- Dro/--- 0030/---- 07/-- -
11395 N20W71
(867",357") 		/α /Hsx /0010 /01 -
11397 S20W39
(578",-272") 		/ / / / -
11400 S13W58
(807",-176") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 18-Jan-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 18-Jan-2012 22:00 UT .