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 7 January 2012
⇐20120106 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20120108⇒

NOAA
7 Active Regions
11388
11389
11390
11391
11392
11393
11394
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11388 Hsx 4(10) 1(1) 0(1)
11389 Cao 16(35) 2(5) 0(1)
11390 Dao 23(0) 6(0) 0(0)
11391 Dki 41(60) 20(5) 3(1)
11392 Dao 23(25) 6(1) 0(1)
11393 Cro 9(40) 1(1) 0(1)
11394 Axx 2(5) 0(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11388 S26W74
(843",-411") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0050 01/01 C1.1(02:20)
11389 S21W58
(774",-318") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0230/0200 03/05 C1.6(04:39)
11390 N08W91
(965",134") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0210/0170 08/12 /C1.4(17:16)
11391 N13E15
(-247",279") 		β/β Dki/Dho 0420/0420 19/10 -
11392 N19W45
(654",360") 		β/β Dao/Bxo 0040/0010 08/02 /C2.2(11:14)
C2.7(23:54)
11393 N17W29
(453",338") 		β/β Cro/Dao 0030/0040 07/09 C1.3(17:12)
11394 N18E29
(-451",354") 		α/- Axx/--- 0010/---- 02/-- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C1.4(06:04)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 7-Jan-2012 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 7-Jan-2012 22:00 UT .