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 23 December 2011
⇐20111222 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111224⇒

NOAA
8 Active Regions
11376
11381
11382
11383
11384
11377
11379
11380
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11376 Dko 33(30) 15(10) 2(5)
11381 Dai 38(20) 11(5) 2(1)
11382 Dai 38(40) 11(5) 2(1)
11383 Hrx 5(5) 0(1) 0(1)
11384 Dko 33(30) 15(1) 2(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11376 N18W85
(923",303") 		β/β Dko/Dsi 0440/0090 13/11 C1.8(04:10)
C3.4(19:12)
11381 S18W41
(610",-278") 		β/β Dai/Cso 0180/0070 15/07 /C5.4(01:56)
11382 S19W34
(517",-292") 		β/β Dai/Dsc 0050/0140 09/17 /C2.0(07:21)
11383 N03E12
(-203",84") 		α/α Hrx/Hsx 0020/0020 01/01 -
11384 N12E24
(-389",233") 		β/β Dko/Cao 0300/0210 17/07 C1.5(10:09)
/C1.5(05:08)
C1.9(13:04)
11377 N12W81
(942",207") 		/ / / / -
11379 S29W91
(852",-472") 		/ / / / -
11380 S21W10
(158",-319") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 23-Dec-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 23-Dec-2011 22:00 UT .