Flare Prediction System

	14 December 2011
⇐20111213 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation	Today	Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111215⇒

9 Active Regions

11366
11367
11372
11374
11375
11376
11368
11370
11371

No Data

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)

Number

McIntosh

C-class

M-class

X-class

11366	Hsx	4(5)	1(1)	0(1)
11367	Hrx	5(0)	0(0)	0(0)
11374	Cao	16(40)	2(5)	0(1)
11375	Cso	12(10)	2(1)	0(1)
11376	Bxo	5(5)	1(1)	0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

X-rays
Protons
Electrons

Plasma
B Field

3 Day
6 Hour

Events

SolarSoft
SWPC HEK

Flare Forecast
MM MotD

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions

Group Number

Location

Hale
Class

McIntosh Class

Sunspot
Area

Number of Spots

Flares
History

11366

N17W81
(920",287")

α/α

Hsx/Hsx

0050/0050

01/01

11367

S18W91
(926",-301")

α/

Hrx/

0020/

01/

C1.9(01:10)
C1.9(01:47)
C3.5(03:01)
C3.3(04:50)
C2.9(05:12)
C1.6(06:18)
C2.3(09:13)
C5.8(13:18)
C7.5(14:51)
C1.5(16:01)
C2.5(16:43)
C7.0(19:36)
C1.9(22:38)
/C1.4(07:46)
C1.1(14:11)
C1.2(16:04)
C1.0(21:59)
C2.4(22:55)
C4.8(23:31)
C3.1(23:53)

11372

N08W63
(861",142")

β/β

Bxo/Bxo

0010/0010

02/06

11374

S18W13
(209",-289")

β/βδ

Cao/Dso

0140/0150

07/06

11375

N08W17
(283",149")

β/β

Cso/Cso

0050/0070

03/04

11376

N21E38
(-561",360")

β/-

Bxo/---

0010/----

03/--

11368

S16W71
(886",-264")

11370

S24W91
(889",-396")

11371

N09W85
(958",153")

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 14-Dec-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 14-Dec-2011 23:47 UT .