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 10 December 2011
⇐20111209 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111211⇒

NOAA
14 Active Regions
11362
11363
11364
11365
11366
11372
11373
11374
11375
11367
11368
11369
11370
11371
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11362 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11363 Dho 29(35) 2(5) 2(0)
11364 Cso 12(20) 2(0) 0(0)
11365 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11366 Cso 12(15) 2(0) 0(0)
11372 Dso 20(35) 4(5) 0(0)
11374 Hsx 4(25) 1(5) 0(0)
11375 Cso 12(50) 2(10) 0(0)
11367 /Cs 0(5) 0(0) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11362 N07W91
(966",118") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0060/0060 01/03 -
11363 S20W76
(888",-332") 		β/β Dho/Dho 0280/0270 03/07 -
11364 N17W71
(881",286") 		β/β Cso/Dso 0080/0060 03/05 -
11365 N16W91
(935",268") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0120/0070 01/02 -
11366 N18W27
(422",306") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0050/0040 02/02 -
11372 N08W11
(184",141") 		β/β Dso/Bxo 0040/0000 06/02 -
11373 S31W65
(757",-500") 		β/β Bxo/Dro 0020/0020 05/02 -
11374 S17E40
(-600",-281") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0160/0150 02/02 C1.0(23:00)
/C3.1(13:05)
11375 N09E38
(-594",157") 		β/β Cso/Bxo 0070/0010 03/03 C1.2(06:24)
C1.2(18:38)
11367 S18W47
(679",-298") 		/β /Cso /0030 /03 -
11368 S16W15
(243",-264") 		/ / / / -
11369 N22W27
(411",370") 		/ / / / -
11370 S24W45
(631",-393") 		/ / / / -
11371 N09W29
(468",157") 		/α /Hrx /0010 /01 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 10-Dec-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 10-Dec-2011 23:47 UT .