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 22 November 2011
⇐20111121 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111123⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11346
11352
11353
11354
11355
11356
11357
11347
11350
11351
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11346 Cso 12(10) 2(0) 0(0)
11352 Cso 12(15) 2(0) 0(0)
11353 Cro 9(5) 1(0) 0(0)
11354 Dso 20(25) 4(0) 0(0)
11355 Cao 16(30) 2(5) 0(0)
11356 Ehc 63(90) 0(30) 0(1)
11357 Cro 9(15) 1(0) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11346 S17W70
(873",-294") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0050/0040 03/03 -
11352 S24W14
(215",-425") 		β/β Cso/Dso 0070/0120 03/07 -
11353 N07E03
(-50",85") 		β/α Cro/Hsx 0020/0020 03/02 -
11354 S16E03
(-49",-300") 		βγ/βγ Dso/Dai 0080/0220 07/12 C1.2(00:33)
/C3.1(00:03)
C1.8(04:48)
11355 N15E18
(-291",221") 		β/α Cao/Hsx 0140/0090 05/01 -
11356 N15E41
(-617",227") 		β/α Ehc/Hsx 0400/0110 06/01 C4.9(03:59)
C1.9(07:25)
C3.2(09:49)
C1.5(11:12)
C1.0(14:50)
C1.6(17:06)
C3.4(17:45)
/C1.0(13:10)
C1.3(18:19)
11357 N17W44
(647",261") 		β/β Cro/Dro 0020/0020 04/05 -
11347 N06W79
(948",95") 		/ / / / -
11350 N25W39
(555",388") 		/ / / / -
11351 S24W59
(761",-411") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 22-Nov-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 22-Nov-2011 23:47 UT .