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 21 November 2011
⇐20111120 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111122⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
11346
11352
11353
11354
11355
11356
11357
11347
11349
11350
11351
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11346 Cso 12(10) 2(0) 0(0)
11352 Dso 20(20) 4(5) 0(0)
11353 Hsx 4(15) 1(0) 0(0)
11354 Dai 38(60) 11(20) 2(1)
11355 Hsx 4(15) 1(0) 0(0)
11356 Hsx 4(70) 1(25) 0(1)
11357 Dro 17(15) 5(0) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11346 S18W58
(784",-318") 		β/α Cso/Hsx 0040/0060 03/06 /C2.1(22:59)
11352 S25E01
(-15",-443") 		β/β Dso/Cso 0120/0110 07/06 -
11353 N07E18
(-299",85") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0040 02/01 -
11354 S17E16
(-256",-317") 		βγ/β Dai/Dsi 0220/0220 12/12 C3.1(00:03)
C1.8(04:48)
/C1.6(01:50)
C2.1(02:57)
C2.1(06:05)
C4.8(07:34)
C3.0(11:45)
C1.0(16:11)
C6.1(16:35)
C1.4(17:54)
11355 N14E30
(-472",206") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0090/0090 01/01 /C1.2(15:21)
11356 N14E49
(-713",213") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0110/0060 01/01 C1.0(13:10)
C1.3(18:19)
/C1.7(04:59)
C1.8(13:28)
C1.1(18:14)
C1.0(21:17)
11357 N17W32
(493",256") 		β/- Dro/--- 0020/---- 05/-- -
11347 N06W64
(869",86") 		/α /Axx /0010 /03 -
11349 N15W91
(937",251") 		/β /Bxo /0010 /02 -
11350 N25W25
(373",382") 		/β /Cso /0040 /04 -
11351 S24W45
(628",-418") 		/α /Hrx /0010 /02 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C1.8(07:16)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 21-Nov-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 21-Nov-2011 23:47 UT .