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 16 November 2011
⇐20111115 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111117⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
11340
11341
11342
11343
11346
11347
11348
11349
11350
11351
11345
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11340 Hsx 4(1) 1(1) 0(1)
11341 Dso 20(20) 4(1) 0(1)
11342 Hsx 4(15) 1(1) 0(1)
11343 Hsx 4(15) 1(1) 0(1)
11346 Dso 20(99) 4(40) 0(5)
11347 Hax 7(20) 2(1) 0(1)
11348 Dso 20(0) 4(0) 0(0)
11349 Cro 9(15) 1(1) 0(1)
11350 Dso 20(15) 4(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11340 S08W84
(955",-139") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0070 01/01 -
11341 N09W63
(855",131") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0120/0070 07/07 -
11342 N17W76
(900",273") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0110/0110 01/01 -
11343 N28W53
(685",431") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0070 01/01 -
11346 S18E13
(-208",-342") 		β/β Dso/Cso 0120/0110 05/03 C2.9(18:49)
C1.6(21:37)
/C2.4(23:39)
M1.9(12:30)
11347 N08W00
(0",90") 		α/β Hax/Cro 0030/0030 02/03 -
11348 N20W91
(911",332") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0120/0060 05/12 C1.7(00:03)
C2.3(02:55)
C3.0(03:26)
C7.5(04:46)
C4.0(06:15)
C2.8(13:28)
C7.9(14:48)
/M1.2(09:03)
11349 N15W30
(470",213") 		β/β Cro/Bxo 0020/0010 08/03 -
11350 N26E39
(-550",394") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0170/0040 05/03 -
11351 S24E23
(-347",-433") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0020 02/05 -
11345 S24W91
(885",-393") 		/α /Hsx /0010 /01 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.2(19:47)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 16-Nov-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 16-Nov-2011 23:47 UT .