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 15 November 2011
⇐20111114 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111116⇒

NOAA
13 Active Regions
11339
11340
11341
11342
11343
11344
11345
11346
11347
11348
11349
11350
11351
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11339 Dso 20(0) 4(0) 0(0)
11340 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11341 Dso 20(0) 4(0) 0(0)
11342 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11343 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11344 Cso 12(0) 2(0) 0(0)
11346 Cso 12(0) 2(0) 0(0)
11347 Cro 9(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11348 Dso 20(0) 4(0) 0(0)
11349 Bxo 5(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11350 Dso 20(0) 4(0) 0(0)
11351 Bxo 5(0) 1(0) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11339 N19W91
(916",316") 		β/β Dso/Dai 0240/0360 03/11 C1.3(10:36)
C2.8(11:01)
C2.2(15:02)
C3.3(16:27)
C1.7(18:30)
C7.8(20:23)
M1.1(22:27)
/C1.2(06:09)
C5.2(09:18)
C2.6(17:32)
C2.7(18:26)
C1.8(19:42)
C4.2(23:42)
11340 S08W71
(909",-150") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0080 01/01 -
11341 N09W49
(724",121") 		β/β Dso/Cso 0070/0080 07/07 -
11342 N17W62
(820",262") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0110/0150 01/01 /C4.1(15:54)
11343 N28W40
(552",424") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0120 01/01 -
11344 S17W91
(926",-282") 		β/β Cso/Esi 0060/0240 03/11 C1.6(08:12)
11345 S24W85
(882",-397") 		α/β Hsx/Cro 0010/0030 01/03 -
11346 S18E26
(-405",-340") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0110/0110 03/02 M1.9(12:30)
11347 N08E14
(-233",89") 		β/β Cro/Cro 0030/0030 03/03 -
11348 N20W84
(906",326") 		β/- Dso/--- 0060/---- 12/-- M1.2(09:03)
11349 N15W16
(259",207") 		β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 03/-- -
11350 N26E53
(-697",400") 		β/- Dso/--- 0040/---- 03/-- -
11351 S23E37
(-538",-414") 		β/- Bxo/--- 0020/---- 05/-- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C2.1(11:18)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 15-Nov-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 15-Nov-2011 23:47 UT .