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 14 November 2011
⇐20111113 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111115⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11338
11339
11340
11341
11342
11343
11344
11345
11346
11347
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11338 Cro 9(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11339 Dai 38(0) 11(0) 2(0)
11340 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11341 Cso 12(0) 2(0) 0(0)
11342 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11343 Hsx 4(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11344 Esi 49(0) 5(0) 0(0)
11345 Cro 9(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11346 Cso 12(15) 2(1) 0(1)
11347 Cro 9(0) 1(0) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11338 S13W91
(944",-216") 		β/β Cro/Dao 0030/0120 02/06 /C1.7(03:50)
C1.9(14:58)
11339 N19W89
(916",314") 		β/βγ Dai/Dac 0360/0650 11/26 C1.2(06:09)
C5.2(09:18)
C2.6(17:32)
C2.7(18:26)
C1.8(19:42)
11340 S08W58
(816",-160") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0080 01/01 -
11341 N10W36
(563",129") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0080/0080 07/04 -
11342 N16W48
(694",235") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0150/0140 01/02 C4.1(15:54)
11343 N28W28
(403",417") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0120/0140 01/01 -
11344 S18W87
(920",-301") 		β/β Esi/Dai 0240/0200 11/22 /C2.4(04:53)
C1.4(06:39)
C1.9(08:11)
C1.1(20:12)
11345 S25W68
(815",-426") 		β/β Cro/Dso 0030/0070 03/02 -
11346 S21E43
(-619",-381") 		β/α Cso/Hsx 0110/0080 02/01 -
11347 N07E39
(-607",80") 		β/- Cro/--- 0030/---- 03/-- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.1(11:18) /C2.6(09:17) C1.2(16:44)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 14-Nov-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 14-Nov-2011 23:47 UT .