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 10 November 2011
⇐20111109 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111111⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11336
11337
11338
11339
11340
11341
11342
11343
11344
11345
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11338 Dso 20(15) 4(1) 0(1)
11339 Fkc 53(95) 50(50) 19(10)
11340 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11341 Dso 20(15) 4(1) 0(1)
11342 Eho 36(15) 11(1) 0(1)
11343 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11344 Dao 23(10) 6(1) 0(1)
11345 Cso 12(15) 2(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11336 N14W83
(933",227") 		α/ Axx/ 0001/ 02/ -
11337 N17W71
(877",265") 		α/ Axx/ 0001/ 01/ -
11338 S12W52
(748",-235") 		β/β Dso/Esi 0230/0180 11/15 -
11339 N21W33
(494",303") 		βγ/βγ Fkc/Ekc 1030/0940 50/40 C1.3(04:32)
C6.0(18:20)
/C1.9(01:43)
11340 S09W05
(83",-208") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0090/0080 01/01 -
11341 N18E14
(-223",247") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0210/0110 08/05 -
11342 N17E08
(-129",229") 		β/β Eho/Eso 0310/0130 18/14 -
11343 N27E23
(-338",393") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0110/0090 01/01 /M1.1(13:04)
11344 S22W33
(490",-407") 		β/α Dao/Axx 0040/0000 10/02 -
11345 S25W15
(228",-460") 		β/- Cso/--- 0080/---- 06/-- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.1(01:40) C1.4(12:05) C2.2(15:48)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 10-Nov-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 10-Nov-2011 23:47 UT .