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 7 November 2011
⇐20111106 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111108⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
11334
11338
11339
11340
11341
11342
11343
11336
11337
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11334 Hax 7(10) 2(0) 0(0)
11338 Dso 20(25) 4(5) 0(0)
11339 Fkc 53(99) 50(65) 19(10)
11340 Cao 16(15) 2(0) 0(0)
11341 Hsx 4(5) 1(0) 0(0)
11342 Dao 23(35) 6(5) 0(0)
11343 Hsx 4(5) 1(0) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11334 N12W87
(945",197") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0040/0060 02/01 -
11338 S14W12
(196",-294") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0240/0220 09/08 C1.4(09:28)
/C2.3(08:04)
C2.0(17:17)
C1.2(19:52)
C1.7(21:49)
11339 N20E06
(-95",273") 		βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Ekc 1230/1250 42/31 C2.3(00:13)
C3.5(03:05)
C1.5(14:07)
C2.3(22:39)
/C1.5(00:08)
C1.6(04:21)
C1.5(06:04)
C8.8(09:52)
C5.3(14:30)
M1.2(00:46)
M1.4(06:14)
11340 S09E35
(-550",-202") 		β/α Cao/Hsx 0080/0080 01/01 -
11341 N08E52
(-757",96") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0120/0100 01/01 -
11342 N18E48
(-686",259") 		β/β Dao/Dso 0120/0110 06/08 -
11343 N29E62
(-748",443") 		α/- Hsx/--- 0060/---- 01/-- -
11336 N11W44
(662",140") 		/ / / / -
11337 N18W28
(433",247") 		/β /Bxo /0000 /03 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 7-Nov-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 7-Nov-2011 23:47 UT .