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 17 October 2011
⇐20111016 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111018⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11312
11313
11314
11316
11317
11318
11319
11320
11321
11322
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11312 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11313 Axx 2(5) 0(1) 0(1)
11314 Cho 15(15) 2(1) 1(1)
11316 Dhi 30(35) 13(5) 0(1)
11317 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11318 Axx 2(15) 0(1) 0(1)
11319 Eki 48(75) 24(20) 5(1)
11321 Bxo 5(10) 1(1) 0(1)
11322 Bxo 5(15) 1(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11312 N22W91
(892",360") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0180/0180 01/01 -
11313 S16W91
(924",-262") 		α/β Axx/Dso 0010/0070 02/05 -
11314 N28W32
(451",379") 		β/β Cho/Cho 0310/0330 04/04 C1.7(16:40)
11316 S12W25
(399",-284") 		β/β Dhi/Dhi 0340/0340 11/11 C2.3(13:15)
11317 S26W13
(195",-505") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0080 01/01 /C1.4(13:51)
11318 N21W72
(855",316") 		α/β Axx/Cso 0010/0020 01/04 C1.8(01:55)
11319 N11W27
(430",99") 		βγ/β Eki/Eai 0280/0240 30/30 C1.6(05:40)
/C1.8(01:35)
C1.9(03:28)
C1.3(04:27)
C2.8(06:41)
C2.0(09:31)
C1.8(11:53)
C6.3(15:04)
11320 S21W90
(898",-343") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 02/04 -
11321 S14E23
(-366",-318") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 02/02 -
11322 S27W78
(839",-452") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 04/04 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.1(08:24) C1.8(09:29) C2.2(10:58) C1.9(18:05) /C3.7(14:28) C4.4(15:53) C1.9(17:28)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 17-Oct-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 17-Oct-2011 23:47 UT .