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 12 October 2011
⇐20111011 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111013⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
11309
11311
11312
11313
11314
11315
11316
11317
11308
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11309 Hsx 4(10) 1(1) 0(0)
11312 Hsx 4(10) 1(1) 0(0)
11313 Dai 38(15) 11(5) 2(0)
11314 Cho 15(25) 2(5) 1(0)
11315 Dao 23(5) 6(1) 0(0)
11316 Dai 38(40) 11(5) 2(0)
11317 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11309 N23W65
(803",334") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0040 01/02 -
11311 S12W91
(939",-196") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0040 01/01 -
11312 N22W30
(447",277") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0210/0210 01/01 -
11313 S15W27
(423",-335") 		β/β Dai/Dai 0120/0090 18/15 -
11314 N27E31
(-442",357") 		β/α Cho/Hsx 0250/0230 02/02 C1.1(15:18)
11315 N20W20
(310",238") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0040/0040 06/06 -
11316 S12E42
(-631",-273") 		β/- Dai/--- 0060/---- 03/-- C1.7(09:46)
C1.3(16:27)
11317 S26E54
(-700",-473") 		α/- Hsx/--- 0090/---- 01/-- -
11308 S25W91
(870",-402") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.4(06:12) C1.4(07:42) C1.7(10:33) C5.3(11:30) C4.3(14:13) C2.7(16:37) C1.0(18:39) C1.4(19:43) /C1.1(23:19)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 12-Oct-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 12-Oct-2011 23:47 UT .