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 8 October 2011
⇐20111007 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20111009⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
11305
11306
11309
11310
11311
11312
11313
11307
11308
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11309 Dso 20(0) 4(0) 0(0)
11310 Hrx 5(0) 0(0) 0(0)
11311 Cso 12(0) 2(0) 0(0)
11312 Hhx 6(40) 2(5) 0(0)
11313 Dsi 36(0) 15(0) 0(0)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11305 N11W91
(942",183") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0180/0220 01/03 /C1.0(00:42)
C2.5(03:55)
11306 N15W87
(926",241") 		α/β Axx/Cro 0010/0010 03/03 -
11309 N23W12
(184",278") 		β/β Dso/Cso 0080/0170 04/05 C1.1(04:13)
11310 S34W51
(619",-589") 		α/β Hrx/Cro 0010/0030 01/04 -
11311 S11W36
(555",-266") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0050/0060 02/03 -
11312 N22E21
(-320",267") 		α/α Hhx/Hsx 0320/0210 01/01 -
11313 S16E25
(-391",-356") 		β/β Dsi/Dai 0140/0180 06/10 /C1.2(01:14)
11307 N17W53
(735",218") 		/ / / / -
11308 S25W41
(572",-476") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C2.6(18:53)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 8-Oct-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 8-Oct-2011 23:47 UT .