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 20 September 2011
⇐20110919 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20110921⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
11289
11295
11296
11298
11299
11300
11301
11292
11294
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11289 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11295 Dhc 0(99) 0(35) 0(1)
11296 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
11298 Hrx 5(5) 0(1) 0(1)
11299 Dao 23(25) 6(5) 0(1)
11300 Cso 12(15) 2(1) 0(1)
11301 Dao 23(25) 6(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11289 N23W91
(878",372") 		α/α Hsx/Hhx 0120/0310 01/04 -
11295 N22W36
(522",267") 		βγ/βγ Dhc/Dhc 0300/0300 24/26 -
11296 N26W17
(251",315") 		α/β Hsx/Dso 0050/0100 08/11 -
11298 N14W35
(533",135") 		α/β Hrx/Cro 0020/0030 02/07 -
11299 S19W41
(594",-393") 		β/β Dao/Dai 0060/0110 13/17 -
11300 N24W70
(821",349") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0070/0090 05/07 -
11301 N20E50
(-689",253") 		β/β Dao/Dso 0110/0060 05/02 -
11292 N10W58
(799",103") 		/ / / / -
11294 S16W86
(915",-269") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 20-Sep-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 20-Sep-2011 21:30 UT .