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 17 September 2011
⇐20110916 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20110918⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
11289
11290
11291
11292
11293
11294
11295
11296
11297
11298
11299
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11289 Cko 26(0) 6(0) 0(0)
11290 Bxo 5(0) 1(0) 0(0)
11291 Dao 23(10) 6(1) 0(1)
11292 Hrx 5(5) 0(1) 0(1)
11293 Bxo 5(25) 1(5) 0(1)
11294 Cro 9(10) 1(1) 0(1)
11295 Dai 38(45) 11(10) 2(1)
11296 Dao 23(25) 6(5) 0(1)
11297 Dao 23(25) 6(5) 0(1)
11298 Dso 20(15) 4(1) 0(1)
11299 Cro 9(10) 1(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11289 N22W64
(796",306") 		β/β Cko/Cho 0310/0300 05/05 /C2.5(23:08)
C2.6(23:09)
11290 S13W82
(921",-229") 		β/α Bxo/Axx 0010/0010 03/02 C1.4(08:05)
C1.1(10:47)
/C9.3(11:30)
C2.0(15:05)
C1.4(22:09)
11291 N24W91
(871",387") 		β/β Dao/Cro 0090/0050 03/03 -
11292 N09W17
(276",35") 		α/α Hrx/Hrx 0020/0020 01/01 -
11293 N17W78
(893",253") 		β/β Bxo/Dao 0010/0050 02/05 -
11294 S16W44
(639",-344") 		β/β Cro/Cro 0020/0020 01/07 -
11295 N22E04
(-61",245") 		βγ/β Dai/Dai 0240/0130 23/16 C1.6(16:06)
/C1.4(18:00)
11296 N26E19
(-280",315") 		β/β Dao/Dai 0130/0130 08/08 /C4.5(02:40)
C2.2(17:09)
11297 S18W90
(907",-292") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0060/0050 02/04 /C7.8(00:03)
C4.7(04:32)
C2.2(08:42)
C2.0(15:28)
C2.2(18:40)
C1.5(19:26)
11298 N15E10
(-160",132") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0070/0040 07/05 -
11299 S21W02
(31",-452") 		β/- Cro/--- 0030/---- 08/-- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C1.8(08:07)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 17-Sep-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 17-Sep-2011 21:30 UT .