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 14 September 2011
⇐20110913 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20110915⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
11287
11289
11290
11292
11293
11294
11295
11296
11288
11291
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
11287 Dso 20(35) 4(5) 0(1)
11289 Cko 26(70) 6(20) 0(1)
11290 Dao 23(50) 6(10) 0(1)
11292 Cao 16(15) 2(1) 0(1)
11293 Bxo 5(20) 1(5) 0(1)
11294 Cso 12(10) 2(1) 0(1)
11295 Cso 12(10) 2(1) 0(1)
11296 Dso 20(10) 4(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11287 S27W80
(836",-448") 		β/β Dso/Cso 0080/0050 03/02 -
11289 N23W21
(315",267") 		β/β Cko/Cko 0350/0300 10/06 -
11290 S14W38
(571",-321") 		β/β Dao/Dsi 0070/0070 08/10 C4.2(16:16)
C9.2(20:42)
11292 N09E25
(-399",40") 		β/β Cao/Bxo 0050/0010 05/03 -
11293 N17W38
(563",187") 		β/β Bxo/Dso 0010/0020 03/03 -
11294 S18W00
(0",-407") 		β/β Cso/Bxo 0020/0010 05/02 -
11295 N21E45
(-631",260") 		β/α Cso/Hsx 0030/0030 02/01 C1.8(04:11)
C1.4(11:50)
/C2.9(23:31)
11296 N27E58
(-722",373") 		β/- Dso/--- 0050/---- 02/-- -
11288 N19W91
(901",309") 		/ / / / C1.9(08:29)
/C2.7(12:03)
11291 N23W56
(729",308") 		/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.2(11:17) C1.8(15:57) C1.1(18:50) C2.2(19:15) /C1.1(04:12) C1.5(17:27)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 14-Sep-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 14-Sep-2011 21:30 UT .