show styles

 20 July 2011
⇐20110719 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20110721⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
11250
11251
11254
11256
11257
11258
11259
11252
11255
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
11250 S26W86
(846",-417") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0100/0050 01/02 -
11251 N17W47
(662",223") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0090/0080 01/03 -
11254 S22W16
(242",-424") 		β/β Dso/Cai 0080/0060 12/15 -
11256 N10W33
(508",98") 		β/β Bxo/Dro 0010/0020 02/04 -
11257 N20W91
(886",322") 		β/β Dso/Dsi 0240/0120 03/12 -
11258 N12W63
(824",160") 		β/β Cso/Cro 0040/0020 04/05 -
11259 N25E44
(-596",346") 		β/β Cso/Dao 0100/0030 03/01 -
11252 N25W20
(293",331") 		/ / / / -
11255 N18W32
(477",227") 		/β /Cro /0020 /05 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 20-Jul-2011 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 20-Jul-2011 20:30 UT .