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 7 November 2004
⇐20041106 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20041108⇒

NOAA
5 Active Regions
10693
10695
10696
10697
10698
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
10693 Fai 48(60) 28(25) 3(1)
10695 Dso 20(15) 4(1) 0(1)
10696 Ekc 54(99) 41(75) 13(20)
10697 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
10698 Cso 12(25) 2(5) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
10693 S15W57
(-",-") 		βγ/βγ Fai/Fki 0410/0540 15/31 -
10695 S14W27
(-",-") 		β/β Dso/Cso 0020/0040 02/04 -
10696 N09W08
(-",-") 		βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 0910/0820 33/18 C3.2(01:38)
C4.4(02:37)
C5.3(04:11)
C5.1(04:45)
C1.0(06:22)
C4.1(07:52)
C6.7(09:35)
C1.2(12:38)
C7.0(13:58)
C2.3(15:09)
X2.0(15:42)
C2.8(21:54)
C1.6(23:23)
/M9.3(00:11)
M5.9(00:44)
M3.6(01:40)
C1.8(06:54)
C2.6(14:24)
C9.4(15:41)
C3.6(16:46)
C4.6(17:05)
M1.4(19:38)
C2.4(20:55)
10697 N05W52
(-",-") 		α/- Hsx/- 0010/- 01/- -
10698 S10W42
(-",-") 		β/- Cso/- 0020/- 05/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 07-Nov-2004 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 07-Nov-2004 23:30.