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 2 November 2004
⇐20041101 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20041103⇒

NOAA
7 Active Regions
10687
10689
10690
10691
10693
10695
10696
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
10689 Hax 7(15) 2(1) 0(1)
10690 Cao 16(5) 2(1) 0(1)
10691 Dao 23(60) 6(10) 0(5)
10693 Fkc 53(80) 50(40) 19(5)
10695 Dso 20(20) 4(1) 0(1)
10696 Dao 23(25) 6(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
10687 N11W92
(-",-") 		β/β Bxo/Cao 0030/0060 02/04 C6.9(01:34)
C2.5(13:15)
/C2.6(04:14)
C2.9(06:55)
10689 N11W71
(-",-") 		α/α Hax/Hax 0020/0040 01/01 C9.8(09:35)
C1.2(18:41)
10690 S02W54
(-",-") 		β/β Cao/Dao 0060/0040 04/07 -
10691 N13W55
(-",-") 		β/βγ Dao/Dac 0140/0270 08/23 /M1.1(03:04)
10693 S16E08
(-",-") 		βγ/βγ Fkc/Fkc 0780/0760 50/50 C1.8(01:17)
10695 S15E39
(-",-") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0070/0130 03/04 -
10696 N09E63
(-",-") 		β/- Dao/- 0060/- 06/- C1.2(16:32)

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.1(21:41)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 02-Nov-2004 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 02-Nov-2004 23:30.