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 25 October 2004
⇐20041024 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20041026⇒

NOAA
8 Active Regions
10682
10684
10685
10687
10689
10690
10691
10692
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
10684 Dai 38(25) 11(5) 2(1)
10685 Axx 2(1) 0(1) 0(1)
10687 Eki 48(85) 24(55) 5(5)
10689 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
10690 Hax 7(5) 2(1) 0(1)
10691 Eai 43(50) 19(10) 1(1)
10692 Dao 23(5) 6(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
10682 S12W86
(-",-") 		β/β Cao/Dso 0030/0080 04/07 /C2.1(18:21)
C5.5(21:44)
10684 S04W27
(-",-") 		β/β Dai/Dai 0150/0180 24/17 -
10685 S07W56
(-",-") 		α/β Axx/Bxo 0020/0010 03/06 -
10687 N12E15
(-",-") 		βδ/βγ Eki/Eai 0280/0270 44/27 C2.4(07:11)
C2.3(09:57)
C6.8(10:15)
C2.1(14:02)
C4.4(14:29)
C1.1(17:13)
C2.3(21:42)
/C1.6(01:28)
C1.9(02:23)
C1.7(02:54)
C1.0(17:04)
M2.3(20:17)
10689 N11E34
(-",-") 		α/α Hsx/Hax 0050/0040 01/01 -
10690 N00E53
(-",-") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0070/0070 03/01 -
10691 N15E59
(-",-") 		βγδ/α Eai/Hsx 0150/0050 11/01 C4.2(02:38)
/C2.6(06:56)
10692 S17E30
(-",-") 		β/- Dao/- 0070/- 08/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 25-Oct-2004 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 25-Oct-2004 23:30.