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 24 October 2004
⇐20041023 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20041025⇒

NOAA
8 Active Regions
10682
10684
10685
10687
10688
10689
10690
10691
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
10682 Dso 20(65) 4(30) 0(5)
10684 Dai 38(35) 11(5) 2(1)
10685 Bxo 5(5) 1(1) 0(1)
10687 Eai 43(85) 19(55) 1(5)
10689 Hax 7(1) 2(1) 0(1)
10690 Hsx 4(5) 1(1) 0(1)
10691 Hsx 4(50) 1(10) 0(1)

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
10682 S13W73
(-",-") 		β/βγ Dso/Esi 0080/0150 07/10 C2.1(18:21)
C5.5(21:44)
/C3.2(07:20)
C1.3(08:08)
10684 S03W12
(-",-") 		β/β Dai/Dai 0180/0200 17/12 -
10685 S06W45
(-",-") 		β/β Bxo/Dso 0010/0050 06/09 -
10687 N11E28
(-",-") 		βγ/βγ Eai/Eki 0270/0280 27/16 C1.6(01:28)
C1.9(02:23)
C1.7(02:54)
C1.0(17:04)
M2.3(20:17)
/C9.9(16:22)
C8.0(19:16)
10688 S08W87
(-",-") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0020/0060 01/01 -
10689 N12E48
(-",-") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0040/0060 01/01 -
10690 N00E66
(-",-") 		α/α Hsx/Hax 0070/0060 01/01 -
10691 N16E69
(-",-") 		α/- Hsx/- 0050/- 01/- C2.6(06:56)

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C1.8(03:57)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 24-Oct-2004 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 24-Oct-2004 23:30.