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 30 April 2003
⇐20030429 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20030501⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
10337
10340
10343
10344
10345
10346
10347
10348
10349
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
10337 S16W81
(897",-249") 		βγ/βγδ Eao/Dac 0290/0270 15/19 /C1.0(00:22)
M1.1(04:32)
10340 S09W64
(840",-117") 		β/- Dao/- 0130/- 17/- -
10343 N07W37
(566",170") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 02/- -
10344 N16W41
(597",311") 		βγ/βγδ Dao/Dki 0370/0450 18/16 -
10345 S16W06
(95",-194") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0190/0210 15/13 C1.1(17:18)
/C1.0(07:48)
10346 N16W02
(31",327") 		β/α Cso/Hsx 0090/0090 04/02 -
10347 S18W16
(248",-228") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 09/03 -
10348 S35E06
(-81",-485") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0050/0030 10/09 -
10349 S13E06
(-96",-145") 		βγ/βγ Dkc/Dki 0510/0390 44/29 C1.0(01:25)
/C1.1(06:47)
C2.1(10:53)
C1.7(16:53)
C1.5(19:33)
C1.2(19:54)
C1.7(21:11)
C1.4(22:39)
C3.1(23:39)

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 30-Apr-2003 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 30-Apr-2003 23:30.