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 10 December 2001
⇐20011209 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20011211⇒

NOAA
13 Active Regions
09717
09718
09720
09721
09723
09724
09726
09727
09728
09731
09732
09733
09734
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09717 N05W91
(940",82") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0100 01/01 -
09718 S06W90
(939",-98") 		β/β Dao/Dki 0280/0470 10/15 -
09720 S28W76
(810",-442") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0040/0050 09/10 -
09721 N11W78
(907",181") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0110/0100 03/04 -
09723 S05W82
(932",-81") 		β/β Cso/Dso 0040/0040 03/03 -
09724 N10W47
(682",169") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0030/0040 01/05 -
09726 S16W36
(535",-256") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0040/0060 08/08 -
09727 S20W23
(348",-318") 		βγδ/βγδ Dai/Dki 0360/0370 23/21 -
09728 N35W84
(769",542") 		β/β Eso/Eso 0050/0070 05/04 -
09731 N25W17
(251",406") 		β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0020 05/03 -
09732 N04E22
(-354",72") 		β/β Cso/Dso 0060/0080 04/05 -
09733 N14E44
(-638",233") 		β/β Eai/Eao 0290/0240 21/19 -
09734 S12E67
(-852",-194") 		β/- Cao/- 0050/- 02/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 10-Dec-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 10-Dec-2001 23:30.