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 8 December 2001
⇐20011207 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20011209⇒

NOAA
13 Active Regions
09716
09717
09718
09720
09721
09723
09724
09726
09727
09728
09729
09731
09732
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09716 S05W91
(940",-82") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/02 -
09717 N05W75
(910",83") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0110/0130 01/04 -
09718 S06W65
(853",-97") 		βγ/βγ Dki/Eki 0540/0720 17/23 -
09720 S26W54
(688",-413") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0070/0040 09/09 -
09721 N12W51
(720",198") 		β/α Cao/Hsx 0130/0220 04/03 -
09723 S04W52
(744",-64") 		β/β Dro/Dso 0040/0040 05/07 -
09724 N10W21
(334",166") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0060/0040 06/03 -
09726 S16W11
(174",-259") 		β/β Dso/Cso 0080/0070 07/03 -
09727 S22E03
(-46",-353") 		βγδ/βγδ Dkc/Dko 0430/0400 08/12 -
09728 N36W60
(663",557") 		β/β Eao/Dao 0110/0100 05/09 -
09729 N23W35
(500",372") 		α/β Hrx/Dro 0020/0020 01/03 -
09731 N24E10
(-150",387") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0030/0040 03/04 -
09732 N03E50
(-724",51") 		β/- Dso/- 0070/- 03/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 08-Dec-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 08-Dec-2001 23:30.