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 24 November 2001
⇐20011123 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20011125⇒

NOAA
8 Active Regions
09697
09698
09704
09710
09712
09713
09714
09715
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09697 N11W91
(927",180") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0170/0260 01/01 -
09698 S24W91
(862",-383") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0110 01/01 -
09704 S17W65
(820",-287") 		βγδ/βγδ Dki/Eki 0620/0610 26/24 C3.7(00:13)
C1.4(01:49)
C4.5(01:00)
C2.3(03:59)
C2.4(14:54)
C3.1(08:34)
C7.8(15:39)
C3.1(17:18)
/C3.1(07:59)
C6.3(08:28)
C2.4(14:54)
09710 S11W36
(547",-202") 		β/β Cao/Eao 0070/0100 10/15 -
09712 N11E29
(-451",157") 		β/β Dao/Dso 0080/0090 11/07 -
09713 N08W25
(396",107") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0040/0040 09/10 -
09714 S11E07
(-113",-207") 		β/β Cso/Dao 0020/0050 05/04 -
09715 N07E66
(-858",104") 		α/- Hsx/- 0040/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.9(22:19) C2.8(23:30) C2.3(04:56) C3.6(11:14) C2.4(05:41) C7.6(09:24) C1.9(22:19) C2.8(23:30) /C3.6(07:06) C1.7(23:34)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 24-Nov-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 24-Nov-2001 23:30.