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 17 November 2001
⇐20011116 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20011118⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
09690
09691
09694
09695
09696
09697
09698
09703
09704
09707
09708
09709
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09690 S17W89
(903",-276") 		βγ/βγ Dko/Fki 0510/0730 13/29 -
09691 N09W70
(878",134") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0050/0070 03/03 -
09694 N14W54
(743",205") 		β/α Cso/Hsx 0050/0050 03/01 -
09695 N12W23
(362",159") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0090/0050 02/03 -
09696 S04W23
(369",-103") 		β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0020 05/08 -
09697 N13W07
(112",173") 		βγ/βγ Eki/Dki 0290/0330 24/22 C1.9(15:31)
/C3.1(21:40)
09698 S23W05
(76",-407") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0100/0090 04/05 -
09703 N23W28
(409",336") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0020/0020 04/05 -
09704 S18E27
(-409",-327") 		β/β Cko/Cko 0430/0270 14/06 M2.8(04:49)
09707 N14W38
(566",197") 		α/- Axx/- 0010/- 02/- -
09708 N01W09
(148",-24") 		α/- Axx/- 0010/- 03/- -
09709 N20E26
(-390",289") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 03/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.4(04:00) /C1.8(02:08) C2.6(09:31) C1.5(13:29) C1.6(18:43) C1.8(20:29)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 17-Nov-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 17-Nov-2001 23:30.